Bitcoin Price Projection: $150,000 by 2025, Impact of ETF Approval

Introduction

According to a recent projection by global asset management firm Bernstein, Bitcoin (BTC) price is expected to reach $150,000 levels in the 2024 to 2027 cycle.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin has experienced a minor price gain of 0.5% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $34,530.02. However, Bernstein is bullish about the coin and predicts a significant price jump. To achieve the projected price, BTC would need to surge by up to 336% from its current market value.

Historical Relationship

Bernstein supports its claim by highlighting the historical relationship between Bitcoin price and its price-to-marginal cost. This comparison provides insights into potential profitability for miners and the sentiment of the broader market. Notably, Bitcoin's price was about 5 times its marginal cost six years ago, reaching an All-Time High (ATH) of approximately $20,000. In 2019, the coin peaked again, but not as high as in 2017, with a 1.5 multiplier that almost hit $70,000.

Achieving the Projection

Bernstein's projection of $150,000 by mid-2025 is based on an anticipated price multiplier of 1.5. This multiplier is considered the most plausible way to reach the target price. The chart shows that Bitcoin price rarely goes below the marginal cost, indicating that the marginal cost often serves as a support level or floor for the token price.

Impact of Bitcoin ETF Approval

The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is believed to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price in the long run. Analysts predict that the approval could pump Bitcoin's price to $45,000 by the end of 2023. The conversation surrounding the approval has shifted from uncertainty earlier in the year to discussions about when the product will finally be approved. Applicants like BlackRock and Valkyrie have already seeded their Bitcoin ETFs, bringing them closer to the anticipated approval.